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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround receives the prize. However, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

However the latest race is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime also-rans improving in unison. During an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a normal year!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still